Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency in the November 2024 election has generated a wave of concern in the international maritime sector.

Trump’s proposed tariff policies could have a significant impact on global trade and thus on shipping.

Donald Trump’s tariff proposals

According to recent statements, Trump has announced plans to implement aggressive tariffs upon winning the election:

• A general tariff of 10% on all U.S. imports
• A specific tariff of 60% for imports from China

These measures could have far-reaching consequences for international trade and shipping.

Potential impact on maritime trade

Cost increases and changes in demand

The implementation of these tariffs could result in:

• A significant increase in costs for the average U.S. consumer.
• Una posible reducción en los volúmenes de importación de Estados Unidos
• Shifting of production from China to the United States and Mexico

Restructuring of trade routes

The proposed tariffs could lead to major changes in shipping routes:

• Possible shift of production volumes to Southeast Asia and South Asia
• Increased sailing distances
• Increased demand for seagoing cargo vessels

Effects on freight rates

Political uncertainty and potential tariff changes are generating expectations of volatility in freight rates by 2025:

• An increase in sea and air freight rates is anticipated,
• High demand for containers and vessel space could put upward pressure on prices.
• Possible “stampede” of importers in December 2024 and January 2025, bringing forward orders to avoid tariffs.

Outlook for the container shipping industry

The container shipping industry faces an uncertain outlook for 2025:

• BIMCO forecasts ship demand growth between 14.5% and 15.5% in 2024.
• However, a drop between 4.5% and 5.5% is expected in 2025.
• Freight rates could decline steadily by 2025 as more vessels enter the market.

Global implications

The impact of these tariff policies would extend beyond the United States:

• It would affect companies from both the U.S. and Europe .
• It could accelerate the diversification of commercial risk initiated during the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Possible creation of opportunities for new maritime routes.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

1. How would Trump’s tariffs affect the prices of imported products?
   The proposed tariffs could significantly increase the prices of imported products, especially those from China, directly affecting the end consumer.
2. What impact would these tariffs have on the shipping industry?
   The shipping industry could experience changes in trade routes, increased demand for certain types of vessels and fluctuations in freight rates.
3. How could companies prepare for these potential changes?
   Companies could consider diversifying their suppliers, exploring new shipping routes and bringing forward orders to mitigate the impact of potential future tariffs.

Conclusions

The possible implementation of tariffs by Trump in 2025 poses a scenario of uncertainty for international maritime trade.

The impact of these tariff policies would extend beyond the United States, affecting companies in both the U.S. and Europe and potentially accelerating the diversification of trade risk initiated during the COVID-19 pandemic.

While it could generate opportunities for some regions and types of transport, it also implies significant challenges for the industry as a whole.

Companies and maritime industry players will need to remain vigilant to political developments and prepare to adapt quickly to a potentially volatile business environment.